When we’re asked when something will be done, it’s tempting to answer the question. “It’ll be done on March 32nd,” “It’ll take 182.5 days,” or “We need 15 sprints”. Whether that answer is the best-case, average, or worst-case scenario doesn’t matter.

The answer is fundamentally wrong because using a single value hides the fact that we really meant a distribution of possible dates, durations, or outcomes. The exact value is uncertain. Development may be faster or slower than we thought. What if the tech lead wins the lottery and retires? What if a global pandemic forces us to change the way we work?

While we can’t control those factors, we can be mindful of their existence and communicate more clearly. In this talk, we will introduce “bet” language, which makes uncertainty and luck an explicit part of the conversation. This mindset helps us accurately assess risks, pick the right risks to embrace, and avoid analysis paralysis. It also helps us learn in an uncertain world, where even if we make good decisions, we may experience bad outcomes (and vice versa!).

Robert is a Lead Software Engineer at SEP, a software product design and development company. In his 15+ years in the software industry, he has worked on products ranging in size from small apps to enterprise systems; embedded, desktop, web, and cloud platforms; and in a variety of markets and domains, including aerospace, medical, agriculture, construction, and secure communication.

As the AI Practice Lead at SEP, he strives to educate clients and peers about what AI can do, identify complex problems AI can address in whole or in part, and incorporate AI into software products that make a difference for their users.